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吉林省吉電國際貿易有限公司

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2023-09

視點(diǎn)9.14

吉電國貿 2023-09-14 13:44 發(fā)表于吉林


一、宏觀(guān)概覽


1.美國8月未季調CPI年率錄得3.7%,連續第二次回升,美國8月未季調核心CPI年率錄得4.3%,為2021年9月以來(lái)新低,已連續六個(gè)月下降,美國8月季調后CPI月率錄得0.6%,為2022年6月來(lái)新高,核心CPI月率較7月份上漲0.3%,為六個(gè)月來(lái)首次加速上漲。核心CPI數據公布后,市場(chǎng)對美聯(lián)儲11月前加息的押注有所上升。

2.英國7月GDP月率錄得-0.5%,為2022年12月以來(lái)最大降幅。此外,英國7月制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出月率錄得-0.8%,為2022年8月以來(lái)最大降幅;英國7月季調后商品貿易帳錄得-140.64億英鎊,為2022年10月以來(lái)最小逆差。

二、市場(chǎng)表現



1.Cape 5TC index:現價(jià)11743,漲幅716,月平均9844,年平均12325。

2.Pmx 4TC(74K) index:現價(jià)13274,漲幅434,月平均12235,年平均10246。

3.Smx 10TC(58K) index:現價(jià)12719,漲幅416,月平均11645,年平均10042。

4.內盤(pán)期貨夜市收盤(pán)漲跌各異,苯乙烯夜盤(pán)收漲2.05%,純堿漲1.12%,玉米淀粉、玉米、PTA、低硫燃油、短纖、焦炭、棉紗、螺紋鋼、鐵礦石、粳米至多收漲0.82%。熱卷夜盤(pán)收平。焦煤、棉花、棕櫚油、橡膠、燃油、紙漿、瀝青、塑料、聚丙烯、乙二醇、白糖、玻璃、豆油、豆粕夜盤(pán)則至多收跌0.92%,甲醇、豆一、豆二、合成橡膠、PVC、菜粕至多跌1.87%,LPG跌2.19%。

5.2023年9月14日銀行間外匯市場(chǎng)人民幣匯率中間價(jià):美元/人民幣報7.1874,下調(人民幣升值)20點(diǎn)。

6.波羅的海干散貨運價(jià)指數上漲55點(diǎn),漲幅4.455%,至1290點(diǎn)。

7.9月13日全國碳市場(chǎng)收盤(pán)價(jià)72.81元/噸,較前一日上漲0.01%。

三、行業(yè)信息


1.IEA月報:沙特石油減產(chǎn)可能導致油價(jià)波動(dòng)加劇。全球觀(guān)察到的石油庫存在8月份減少了7630萬(wàn)桶,降至13個(gè)月來(lái)的最低水平。

2.美國至9月8日當周EIA原油庫存增加395.5萬(wàn)桶,大超預期的減少191.2萬(wàn)桶。

3.港口市場(chǎng),今日港口調入調出量相對均衡,港口庫存量再回到2100萬(wàn)噸以上,近期鐵路運量有所回升,不過(guò)在安監升級及發(fā)運倒掛下,港口調入提升有限,港口存煤結構性矛盾仍存,下游雖整體需求未有明顯起色,但隨著(zhù)大秦線(xiàn)秋檢臨近、亞運會(huì )即將召開(kāi)以及近期日耗還在高位,終端釋放部分采購需求,市場(chǎng)情緒也略有回暖,今日貿易商報價(jià)小幅上探。

四、后市展望



1.昨夜油價(jià)收漲。歐佩克上調供應缺口預期,EIA上調油價(jià)目標,釋放積極信號。當前在沙特和俄羅斯聯(lián)合減產(chǎn)背景下,市場(chǎng)對油市供需偏緊格局已經(jīng)達成共識,美通脹數據符合預期,在其他利空因素出現之前,預計短期油價(jià)繼續維持偏強震蕩。但高油價(jià)也將加劇歐美通脹問(wèn)題,價(jià)格波動(dòng)幅度或加大,警惕回落風(fēng)險。

2.動(dòng)力煤市場(chǎng),雖然短期受供應偏緊悲觀(guān)預期擾動(dòng),市場(chǎng)報價(jià)較為堅挺,且隨著(zhù)港口庫存的持續回落,非電用煤需求有所增加,但受限于體量,難對價(jià)格起到持續上行驅動(dòng),短期市場(chǎng)以震蕩思路對待。

3.焦煤市場(chǎng),目前雖然安全監管仍嚴,但整體來(lái)看國內供應端擾動(dòng)減弱,蒙煤通關(guān)出現較大幅度下跌,焦企生產(chǎn)積極性仍好,對原料煤存在剛性補庫需求,對煤價(jià)支撐較強,疊加宏觀(guān)利好預期,以及終端旺季補庫預期,短期來(lái)看市場(chǎng)或偏強運行。

4.干散貨航運市場(chǎng),鐵水產(chǎn)量再創(chuàng )高位,鐵礦需求維持強勢,短期內進(jìn)口需求仍有一定支撐,但目前鋼廠(chǎng)利潤有所收窄,后續需觀(guān)察旺季需求的落實(shí)情況。目前歐洲煤炭庫存高企,天然氣儲存設施庫容已提前實(shí)現儲存目標,進(jìn)口需求較弱,但近期印尼煤發(fā)運明顯增多,或對市場(chǎng)形成一定支撐。前期南美糧食出口的強勢需求對航運市場(chǎng)形成較強支撐,同時(shí)美豆發(fā)運旺季即將到來(lái),市場(chǎng)或維持偏強震蕩。


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